Trump's Taiwan mystery
Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Kevin Frayer, Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images
President Trump's dismantling of the U.S.-led global order has injected deep uncertainty — and perhaps fresh opportunity — into China's timeline for a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Why it matters: U.S. officials have long been fixated on 2027 as the year Xi Jinping would be ready to move on Taiwan, citing military modernization goals tied to the 100th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army.
- Trump — while acknowledging that a Chinese invasion would be "catastrophic" — has been purposely opaque about whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan in such a scenario.
- "I never comment on that," Trump said this week when asked if it was his policy that China will never take Taiwan by force. "I don't want to comment on it because I don't want to ever put myself in that position."
Driving the news: Beijing has stepped up its saber-rattling toward Taiwan, pledging at the annual National People's Congress this week to "firmly advance the cause of China's reunification" and boost defense spending by 7.2%.
- Next week marks the 20th anniversary of China's Anti-Secession Law, which explicitly authorizes the use of military force if Taiwan declares independence or if peaceful "reunification" becomes impossible.
- In a sign of mounting tensions, China's embassy in the U.S. warned this week that "if war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we're ready to fight till the end."
The big picture: U.S. presidents have had a long-running policy of "strategic ambiguity" on the question of military intervention to protect Taiwan. But under Trump 2.0, it has become a true mystery.
- For starters, Trump's approach toward Ukraine has dispelled the notion that he would defend Taiwan solely for the sake of shielding a democracy from authoritarian aggression.
- He has openly questioned America's commitment to NATO and sided with Russia, sending allies scrambling to remake Europe's security architecture after 80 years of stability.
Between the lines: Forget alliances or idealism. The only thing Trump cares about on the global stage is core U.S. interests.
- "Taiwan should pay us for defense," Trump told Bloomberg last summer. "You know, we're no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn't give us anything."
- And whether it's Russia or China, Trump prefers to negotiate superpower-to-superpower — leaving allies in the cold, even when their sovereignty or security is at stake.
Zoom in: Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan plays a pivotal role in the global economy, with its crown jewel chip-maker, TSMC, manufacturing more than 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors.
- Global dependence on TSMC has long been considered a powerful deterrent against Chinese aggression, but Trump has treated the company's dominance as a personal affront.
- "Taiwan took our chip business away," Trump told reporters last month. "We had Intel, we had these great companies that did so well. It was taken from us. And we want that business back."
The intrigue: Under the threat of tariffs, TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in U.S chip production this week — pleasing Trump, but alarming Taiwanese who fear it could make the island more vulnerable.
- "It's a great question, actually," Trump said when asked whether having TSMC production in the U.S. would "minimize" the impact of China invading Taiwan.
- "I can't say 'minimize.' That would be a catastrophic event, obviously," Trump mused. "But ... we would have a very big part of it in the U.S. So, it would have a big impact if something should happen with Taiwan."
The other side: Many top Trump officials have called for the U.S. to draw down its presence in Europe and the Middle East to focus on China's threat to Taiwan, seeing it as far more important than Ukraine.
- Elbridge Colby, a leading voice on the issue nominated for a top Pentagon role, told senators this week that Taiwan falling to China "would be a disaster for American interests."
- Colby — who previously has advocated for "disabling or destroying" TSMC factories if China invades — called for Taiwan to boost its defense spending from 2.5% to 10% of its GDP.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, told CNBC Friday that Trump is "confident" Xi will not invade Taiwan during his presidency.
The bottom line: Europe so far has borne the brunt of Trump's highly transactional foreign policy, but China, Taiwan and the rest of the Indo-Pacific are watching closely.
- In the words of Singapore's defense minister last month, America's image in the region "has changed from liberator to great disruptor to a landlord seeking rent."